ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the previous parts. Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, and Manaea were all traded away this spring, and Frankie Montas will likely be sent to the highest bidder during the season. Read the rest of this entry . In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. by Retrosheet. Read the rest of this entry . That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. This works for me if there is 162 games which is not looking like it. Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 19982000 Yankees. One risk facing the Royals is that Witt plays third base, with Nicky Lopez remaining the shortstop. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. The Premier League fixtures for the 2022-23 season were announced on Thursday June 16, 2022 at 4am ET. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. #1 Adley Rutschman. Out went Gray, Castellanos, Barnhart, Winker, Surez, Wade Miley and Amir Garrett. Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below. So how does it work? Looking at which projections went the most wayward is definitely an exercise that makes me soul cringe a bit, but in any model, being wrong is an important component of eventually being right. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. 25. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. Yesterday, we looked at the National League; today, we check out the Junior Circuit. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Would half their analysis department possess Ph.D.s in physics? Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). You start with two easy Hall of Famers and then about 40 seconds later, youre reassembling the late-80s Braves. Not when they need a 2B, at least one OF, maybe a C and P. The exercise continues this offseason. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. Read the rest of this entry . One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division. If the last 2 years are any indication, we'd need to bank on another 60 game season, God damn they are more optimistic than me. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. I doubt theyll enter the season with Ryan Pepiot in the rotation. Seagers health record hasnt been perfect, but it hasnt been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. Probably the most surprising team in these standings is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a cornucopia of players that ZiPS just really likes (Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson in particular). I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. ITS ANGELS TIME! Toronto also projects to have the lowest downside of any of the AL East contenders. Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but hes also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. Another 15 wins to add to this projection seem pretty straightforward. Still, a bounce back from Nick Castellanos remains likely. Any trades would be to move Rosario or one of Plesac/Civale. They re-signed postseason hero Eddie Rosario and added Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh to bolster an already deep bullpen. Losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the first three months of the season puts them at a serious disadvantage, and they chose to make surprisingly few acquisitions over the offseason after two years of near-frenetic activity. Adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Mitch Garver, Kole Calhoun, and Brad Miller certainly lifts the ceiling of their roster, but it still remains incredibly top heavy. Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. Projected lineup. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. Correa is an interesting wild card here simply because he elevates the Mets' lineup from top-heavy to balanced. Speaking of unanswered questions: Will Christian Yelich return to being the MVP-caliber player he was in 2018 and 19, or is the seriously diminished production of the last two years his new baseline? The outfield depth just isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. It's our predicted best guess on the early college basketball rankings after Week 11. Lynn will be back soon enough, but his injury exposes how thin Chicagos rotation is, especially if another injury strikes. by Handedness. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didnt hit at all early last year. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money line . The NHL has passed the mathematical midpoint of the 2022-23 regular season. They play half their games in Coors Field and Coors Field is weird, it makes sense to get hitters and pitchers that are adapted to the situation there (just as it makes sense for the Yankees to sign guys who take advantage of the short porch in right, etc.). The Marlins are in a similar position as they were last year, with a highly interesting young pitching staff and an absolutely atrocious offense that they cant even commit weekend dad levels of attention to fixing. tbh I wouldn't give these projections any credit until the offseason finishes. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. by Retrosheet. Skiing in the Rockies sucks this time of year, Fangraphs' Newly Updated International Prospect Rankings, FanGraphs projects struggles for Giants in 2022 season. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. Hes about half of their payroll now. Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022.. Until he actually puts his pen to the dotted line, anything can happen, and until then, first base is the Braves biggest weakness. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Yes, the " ZiPs" projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski still see the Tigers as a sub-.500 team. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Theyre bound to be better than last year, if only because it would take a disaster of a season to repeat their 2021 failures. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem. The irony in that is, I could make an argument this team has more current question marks than last years team at this point with an unsettled outfield, an unsettled rotation, Ronald Acuna Jr coming off a major injury, same with Charlie Morton, etc. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. But the lineup imploded. ZiPS projects McNeil's 2023 BABIP to be .316, in line with his career average of .314, accounting for much of the batting average drop. The premium ad-free membership. A full year of Byron Buxton would be a huge boost, and the Twins have got plenty of supplemental talent in the lineup in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel San. The premium ad-free membership. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. The exercise continues this offseason. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Even if they are good this year, thats still the lesson. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. by Handedness. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a "state of the union" estimate for each. ZiPS Projections 2023 2022 AL For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. by Handedness, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons, A Conversation With Philadelphia Phillies Southpaw Bailey Falter (Who Is Unique), The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Gone are Gausman, Cueto, Buster Posey, Kris Bryant, Donovan Solano and a host of other role players. The Colorado Rockies are a baseball team. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. A daily roundup of Atlanta Braves news from Battery Power, By submitting your email, you agree to our, FanGraphs and PECOTA projected standings for the 2022 season are here, Adam Duvall headed to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a state of the union estimate for each team. We've graded all 32 teams -- including one A+ and two F's -- and announced the winners of our own batch of awards . Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. Below is the full schedule, as you can watch all 380 . If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. And the pitching still goes pretty deep so its really hard to imagine that they are anywhere near the Royals next year, even in this state. Its insane. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. In the. Theres no trick here; Im not going to say, Ha ha! With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. Well start with Fangraphs. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. Just need to make it a full 6. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. With one major exception, most of the problems now are accuracy rather than bias. They did manage to re-sign Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood while also adding Carlos Rodn, Alex Cobb, and Matthew Boyd to their rotation and Joc Pederson to their lineup. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. You could make an argument for any of these four teams to sit atop these rankings, though, and thats why theyre presented in tiers rather than a straight numerical order. I dont believe thats a safe assumption at all. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. Which team in baseball has the best middle infield? Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Something went wrong. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, theyll at least be entertaining to watch. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. If you think that certain franchises have a history of predictive over- or underperformance, youd have thought wrong, and Id bet its the same for other projection systems. Still, the Guardians entire Opening Day lineup and starting rotation is under 30, and there are a handful of top prospects close to graduating from their farm system. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. Where the Chisox lie, your kind of significance starts at $40. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. 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